For the bottom in activity, I presented a graph of Single family housing starts, New Home Sales, and Residential Investment (RI) as a percent of GDP.
When I posted that graph, the bottom wasn't obvious to everyone. Now it is, and here is another update to that graph.
Click on graph for larger image.
The arrows point to some of the earlier peaks and troughs for these three measures.
The purpose of this graph is to show that these three indicators generally reach peaks and troughs together. Note that Residential Investment is quarterly and single-family starts and new home sales are monthly.
For the recent housing bust, the bottom was spread over a few years from 2009 into 2011. This was a long flat bottom - something a number of us predicted given the overhang of existing vacant housing units.
We could use any of these three measures to determine the first bottom, and then use the other two to confirm the bottom. These measure are very important and are probably the best leading indicators for the economy. But this says nothing about house prices.
The second graph compares RI as a percent of GDP with the real (adjusted for inflation) CoreLogic house price index through February.
Although the CoreLogic data only goes back to 1976, look at what happened following the early '90s housing bust. RI as a percent of GDP bottomed in Q1 1991, but real house prices didn't bottom until Q4 1996 (real prices were mostly flat for several years). Something similar happened in the early 1980s - first activity bottomed, and then real prices - although the two bottoms were closer in the '80s.
Now it appears activity bottomed in 2009 through 2011 (depending on the measure) and real house prices bottomed in early 2012.
Jessica Walter voices Malory Archer on Archer and plays Lucille Bluth on Arrested Development. This Slackatory supercut shows just how much the two quick-witted, alcoholic mothers have in common. If you listen to the audio without watching the video, it’s nearly impossible to tell from which show each line comes unless Bob Belcher has a line as well. If you’ve only been watching one of the two shows, this is a pretty good indication that you should check out the other. Now if you’ll excuse me, I’m off to chug gin martinis with Jessica Walter.
So this is f’d up: In this video, a guy just got stabbed in the back by his girlfriend for allegedly cheating on her. Warning: Mildly NSFW (it’s not that gory).
The best part of the video, bar none, is the guy at 1:23 going “That shit is kinda deep.” Is he referring to the knife? To the situation? The metaphor of a knife in the back as a means of evening the score? I demand to know more immediately!
click for ginormous chart
Source: Kimble Charting
Awesome chart from Chris Kimble showing the Nikkei going back to 1982 — in particular, the downtrend that began in 1989 and still persists to this day.
Chris notes that Declines of 32% to 60% taken place at this level for the past 20 years!
One would normally expect a pullback and consolidation after a long move up to a major trendline, and under pre-Abenomics stimulus, that would be my highest probability outcome (pre-stimulus, I have no idea!).
The key here is if and when the Nikkei breaks through that trendline, it is likely the beginning of a longer term multi-year breakout. This is why we put on Japan exposure for clients much earlier this year.
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Earlier this week, UFC president Dana White said he could do 15 pull-ups. Fans called him out, said there was no way. They trolled him on Twitter, they pecked away at their keyboards, they shouted from the rooftops.
And then Dana White backed it up…sort of.
Dude’s 43-years-old, walked into a gym cold and did 12. Impressive stuff. I bet he’s the strongest commissioner in sports. I bet he could kick Bud Selig’s ass. Your too Roger Goodell.
Since we here at Guyism pretty much live on the Internet we run across an awful lot of good things each day. These are some of the funniest, sexiest, most entertaining things we’ve seen so far today.
Hmm… this actually looks kind of real.
AMAZING PHOTO: UFO Spotted Over San Diego
What the hell?
S^#*, That Escalated Quickly (50 Photos)
Well, they’ve done it again!
Cora Keegan is a Supernova of Hotness
He’s always there when you need an over-the-top reaction GIF.
Jim Carrey GIFs For Every Situation
Bearcats Baseball Post Game Shenanigans
Sexiest Lakers Fan… Ever.
SI Hot Clicks
More than five full minutes of animals being super cool.
Animals are Awesome (Video)
She’s very attractive. Go look at her.
Stephanie Larimore (NSFWish)
Sometimes things just go off the script.
The 5 Greatest Unscripted Disasters in Pro Wrestling
Because why not?
100 Best Oregon Cheerleaders Photos For Summer
For every spectacular success there are spectacular failures, like these.
The 5 Biggest Video Game Flops
Again, because why not?
10 Hottest Chun-Li Cosplays
These folks were creative to the end.
The 20 Awesomest Decorated Graduation Caps
Most underrated Brazilian model on the planet.
Model at Midnight: Raica Oliveira
Virgin Auction: The TV Show, Diving Fails, Martha Hunt and more!
Leonardo DiCaprio, 38, the standard bearer for all men attempting to score with hot women, the man who ran The Pussy Posse, was reportedly shot down by British supermodel Cara Delevingne, 20, in Cannes. Yes, the woman who allegedly dropped a bag of cocaine on camera (which glamour model Kitty Lea says was a publicity stunt) shot down our hero at The Great Gatsby afterparty last week.
Reports The Sun…
“Normally all Leo has to do is look at a girl and they fall at his feet. Though Cara was having none of it. He spent the night chasing after her and essentially she blew him off. They spoke and he was pretty forward inviting her to a party back at his suite. They swapped numbers but that was it. He tried every trick in the book and apparently kept lunging for her but she kept dodging them. Everyone is howling at the fact she actually knocked back the biggest actor in the world. She thought he was too forward and too old.”
Whu…uh…why…what? I don’t know what to believe in anymore.
Okay here we go… they also report that a source close to Leo said he and Cara never spoke. Damn right they didn’t.
Cara says no to Leo [The Sun]
Ukraine is going for Russia’s #1 spot for dumbassery with this clip of a guy diving fully nude into a supermarket tank of live lobsters. Mildly NSFW due to blurry dong.
The only way this video would be better is if he did his little celebration with his arms extended only to find out that one of the lobsters didn’t have rubber bands on his claw and had clipped one of his testicles. That’d truly be a reason to break into a Little Mermaid-esque song of celebration.